Forget about whether $100 silver is possible — how about $1,000?
Another great read. Check it out: CYA: SE:
*********************************************
Published: July 31, 2015 11:23 a.m. ET
By
I don't know of many charts out there that a bullish investor since 2011 would look at with more disgust than the silver chart. It has been an exceptionally painful experience for those bullishly inclined since 2011. In fact, silver has dropped 70% from its 2011 heights to its recent lows, and it is still not done. But this story certainly has a "silver lining" for those who are willing to be a bit more patient.
On Aug. 30, 2011, I wrote my first public column about silver, which called for a market top in silver with a shorting target of 42.90, and that it must remain below 44.30 for the downside to ensue. Within the same column, I provided a downside target of 26.80 in the futures.
On Sept. 2, 2011, silver futures reached a high of 43.72, and then began a waterfall decline which spiked as low as 26.36 24 days later before a larger countertrend rally took hold. In fact, in my comments to this column, I noted on Sept. 3, 2011, that "we are probably within a trading day or two of a big move," and my perspective was clearly to the downside, as I was shorting silver at the time. As we now know, silver declined 38% within three weeks. Our analysis, which even identified the level at which silver would target, was within .44 of the bottom actually struck.
Until the early part of 2012, I viewed that region as the potential end of the correction off the 2011 top and was looking for the start of the next bull-market phase at that time. But the setup I was watching was invalidated and caused me to begin looking to even lower levels.
In early 2014, when silver was around the 22 region and investors were getting bullish again, I was warning that we were setting up for a final drop in silver toward the 11-14 region. As we now know, silver traded down toward that 14 region, and we are not yet done with the correction, but in our opinion, we are likely within months of the final low.
The question then becomes what are we looking for once silver does bottom? Well, many of you may have read my analysis on mining stocks targeting 15,000 in the HUI within 50 years. My expectation for silver is no less "outrageous." Based upon the same methodology we used to identify the tops and bottoms in gold, it is suggesting that silver will be heading toward the $1000 an ounce region within the next 50 years.
The shorter-term pattern suggests that we will be heading up back toward the 40-50 region within the next three to five years, and within the next 15 years, I am expecting silver to be able to increase by 10-15 times the price at which it will soon bottom. This means I would expect silver to exceed the $100 mark within the next decade or so.
So, while many may view these types of projections as only being able to benefit their children or grandchildren due to the longer-term time frame, silver is still presenting itself as a high-probability bottom within the near term, and likely heading back to the prior all-time highs within the next five years.
So, for those who are rather confident in their ability to survive on this planet for the next five years, you have a nice investment opportunity before you, as it is quite a high probability that silver will be appreciably higher by 2020 relative to where we now reside in 2015. So, let's take this one step at a time.
See chart illustrating the wave count on silver.
*********************************************
Published: July 31, 2015 11:23 a.m. ET
By
AviGilburt
I don't know of many charts out there that a bullish investor since 2011 would look at with more disgust than the silver chart. It has been an exceptionally painful experience for those bullishly inclined since 2011. In fact, silver has dropped 70% from its 2011 heights to its recent lows, and it is still not done. But this story certainly has a "silver lining" for those who are willing to be a bit more patient.
On Aug. 30, 2011, I wrote my first public column about silver, which called for a market top in silver with a shorting target of 42.90, and that it must remain below 44.30 for the downside to ensue. Within the same column, I provided a downside target of 26.80 in the futures.
On Sept. 2, 2011, silver futures reached a high of 43.72, and then began a waterfall decline which spiked as low as 26.36 24 days later before a larger countertrend rally took hold. In fact, in my comments to this column, I noted on Sept. 3, 2011, that "we are probably within a trading day or two of a big move," and my perspective was clearly to the downside, as I was shorting silver at the time. As we now know, silver declined 38% within three weeks. Our analysis, which even identified the level at which silver would target, was within .44 of the bottom actually struck.
Until the early part of 2012, I viewed that region as the potential end of the correction off the 2011 top and was looking for the start of the next bull-market phase at that time. But the setup I was watching was invalidated and caused me to begin looking to even lower levels.
In early 2014, when silver was around the 22 region and investors were getting bullish again, I was warning that we were setting up for a final drop in silver toward the 11-14 region. As we now know, silver traded down toward that 14 region, and we are not yet done with the correction, but in our opinion, we are likely within months of the final low.
The question then becomes what are we looking for once silver does bottom? Well, many of you may have read my analysis on mining stocks targeting 15,000 in the HUI within 50 years. My expectation for silver is no less "outrageous." Based upon the same methodology we used to identify the tops and bottoms in gold, it is suggesting that silver will be heading toward the $1000 an ounce region within the next 50 years.
The shorter-term pattern suggests that we will be heading up back toward the 40-50 region within the next three to five years, and within the next 15 years, I am expecting silver to be able to increase by 10-15 times the price at which it will soon bottom. This means I would expect silver to exceed the $100 mark within the next decade or so.
So, while many may view these types of projections as only being able to benefit their children or grandchildren due to the longer-term time frame, silver is still presenting itself as a high-probability bottom within the near term, and likely heading back to the prior all-time highs within the next five years.
So, for those who are rather confident in their ability to survive on this planet for the next five years, you have a nice investment opportunity before you, as it is quite a high probability that silver will be appreciably higher by 2020 relative to where we now reside in 2015. So, let's take this one step at a time.
See chart illustrating the wave count on silver.
Comments
Post a Comment