Why are so many predictors Idiots? Who to listen to?
I was going through some of my old posts; trying to learn from the past. That is the first thing to look at when so called experts speak. Are they willing to learn? Are they willing to admit that they don't know everything? Are they willing to admit that many outside conditions can influence Silver and Gold prices; and they shouldn't pretend that they know what they are talking about.
This is one thing I believe makes me a little different. First, I tell you straight up front, not to trust my "Predictions". I most definitely can be wrong. And at times, I have been. Second, I am not in it for any profit. I don't make one penny off of my posts, blogs, or predictions. So, the second question in the title, "Who to listen to"; I really can't answer directly. But I CAN TELL YOU who NOT to Listen To. That's really easy. Anyone who is writing about silver and gold, and they work directly for a company that SELLS or BUYS silver and gold to/from you; has a conflict of interest. Do NOT listen to them. Now, there are a couple of writers who have some interests in buying/selling to customers, but when they write, they aren't promoting their companies. This is good. Look into not only what they are saying, but where are they coming from.
I went back a few months, and looked at what some were saying were silver and gold projections for 2017. In October and November, the predictions were all over the spectrum. I saw those who saw the highs in mid-2016 (Around $20-$21) for silver as the HIGH, and that it was going to keep crashing THROUGH 2017. They even said the first few months of 2017 silver would probably be at the $15 price point, and heading for $13. Some said the HIGH in 2017 for silver, would be later in the year, and it would be around $17. Well, here it is the 10th of February, and the price has already hit $18 a few times.
Not saying that because a predictor is wrong that they are total bull shit and shouldn't be read. Simply saying to look at what they have to say, and look at their motives. Remember.... if the writer/predictor buys/sells silver/gold, and they are writing predictions and such; they MAKE MONEY NO MATTER WHAT!!! So do they really care. If they scare you into buying; they make a commission. If they scare you into selling, they buy at spot and make a commission on the person they are going to sell it to. They NEVER LOSE MONEY. They are worse than those who buy and sell short/long.
So, who should you listen to? Well, I will make a list of attributes to look for, and a small list of some people I follow. I will tell you that if you follow and read my blog here, I will SIGHT my source if I use one. If I question part of their writings, I will tell you so. I ALWAYS tell you if it's MY OPINION. And I try to always add WHY or some proof for the position. So, if you are going to read and follow people concerning silver and gold; stick to the following.
1. Never follow a person who's predictions, advice, information, etc. is preceded or followed by them advertising their company to BUY or SELL silver/gold to/from.
2. If they are a BIG NAME PERSON; and they are getting you to follow them on Name Recognition; such as David Morgan; then that's fine. But make sure you take the info he is providing, and verify it and analyze it yourself. I follow David Morgan, but I recognize how he makes money. He is very knowledgeable; just recognize that he's trying to make a living too.
3. If a person looks good; doesn't have any buy/sell motives to their opinions; and appears to be knowledgeable, then see how many others are following them. You can look at their blog if they have one; or followers on their youtube channel if they have one. Normally, the bull shit artists are spoken of quickly.
4. Youtube is a great source. After you watch a video, usually, there's a lot of followup comments at the bottom. Look at those. You can tell if a lot of others are agreeing with the person or if they think they are full of shit.
Here are some people that I follow; either on blogs, websites, or on youtube.
1. David Morgan - Yes, but as I said, followup on his sources.
2. JSNIP4 - Mostly on youtube. Better known as Realist News
3. Gregory Mannarino - Mostly on youtube
4. Finance and Liberty - On youtube, but interviews OTHER PEOPLE. So verify those you're listening to.
5. InvestingNews.com - Decent website. Pretty neutral
6. Silverdoctors.com - another decent website.
Remember; stay away from the SELLERS/BUYERS. E.g. moneymetals.com , kitco, or any other site that besides providing info, has a place for you to BUY or SELL. Their motives are to make themselves money; not you. Not saying they are always wrong; but if they say something you like, see if OTHERS are saying the same thing.
And of course, you can keep coming to this blog of mine. I always sight my source if there is one. I never claim to know everything, and I WANT YOU TO RESEARCH what I've written. I also have no financial stake in this blog. I don't make a penny on anything you buy or sell.
Take care:
CYA: SE:
This is one thing I believe makes me a little different. First, I tell you straight up front, not to trust my "Predictions". I most definitely can be wrong. And at times, I have been. Second, I am not in it for any profit. I don't make one penny off of my posts, blogs, or predictions. So, the second question in the title, "Who to listen to"; I really can't answer directly. But I CAN TELL YOU who NOT to Listen To. That's really easy. Anyone who is writing about silver and gold, and they work directly for a company that SELLS or BUYS silver and gold to/from you; has a conflict of interest. Do NOT listen to them. Now, there are a couple of writers who have some interests in buying/selling to customers, but when they write, they aren't promoting their companies. This is good. Look into not only what they are saying, but where are they coming from.
I went back a few months, and looked at what some were saying were silver and gold projections for 2017. In October and November, the predictions were all over the spectrum. I saw those who saw the highs in mid-2016 (Around $20-$21) for silver as the HIGH, and that it was going to keep crashing THROUGH 2017. They even said the first few months of 2017 silver would probably be at the $15 price point, and heading for $13. Some said the HIGH in 2017 for silver, would be later in the year, and it would be around $17. Well, here it is the 10th of February, and the price has already hit $18 a few times.
Not saying that because a predictor is wrong that they are total bull shit and shouldn't be read. Simply saying to look at what they have to say, and look at their motives. Remember.... if the writer/predictor buys/sells silver/gold, and they are writing predictions and such; they MAKE MONEY NO MATTER WHAT!!! So do they really care. If they scare you into buying; they make a commission. If they scare you into selling, they buy at spot and make a commission on the person they are going to sell it to. They NEVER LOSE MONEY. They are worse than those who buy and sell short/long.
So, who should you listen to? Well, I will make a list of attributes to look for, and a small list of some people I follow. I will tell you that if you follow and read my blog here, I will SIGHT my source if I use one. If I question part of their writings, I will tell you so. I ALWAYS tell you if it's MY OPINION. And I try to always add WHY or some proof for the position. So, if you are going to read and follow people concerning silver and gold; stick to the following.
1. Never follow a person who's predictions, advice, information, etc. is preceded or followed by them advertising their company to BUY or SELL silver/gold to/from.
2. If they are a BIG NAME PERSON; and they are getting you to follow them on Name Recognition; such as David Morgan; then that's fine. But make sure you take the info he is providing, and verify it and analyze it yourself. I follow David Morgan, but I recognize how he makes money. He is very knowledgeable; just recognize that he's trying to make a living too.
3. If a person looks good; doesn't have any buy/sell motives to their opinions; and appears to be knowledgeable, then see how many others are following them. You can look at their blog if they have one; or followers on their youtube channel if they have one. Normally, the bull shit artists are spoken of quickly.
4. Youtube is a great source. After you watch a video, usually, there's a lot of followup comments at the bottom. Look at those. You can tell if a lot of others are agreeing with the person or if they think they are full of shit.
Here are some people that I follow; either on blogs, websites, or on youtube.
1. David Morgan - Yes, but as I said, followup on his sources.
2. JSNIP4 - Mostly on youtube. Better known as Realist News
3. Gregory Mannarino - Mostly on youtube
4. Finance and Liberty - On youtube, but interviews OTHER PEOPLE. So verify those you're listening to.
5. InvestingNews.com - Decent website. Pretty neutral
6. Silverdoctors.com - another decent website.
Remember; stay away from the SELLERS/BUYERS. E.g. moneymetals.com , kitco, or any other site that besides providing info, has a place for you to BUY or SELL. Their motives are to make themselves money; not you. Not saying they are always wrong; but if they say something you like, see if OTHERS are saying the same thing.
And of course, you can keep coming to this blog of mine. I always sight my source if there is one. I never claim to know everything, and I WANT YOU TO RESEARCH what I've written. I also have no financial stake in this blog. I don't make a penny on anything you buy or sell.
Take care:
CYA: SE:
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